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Rubio Warns Ukraine Stalemate Risks Wider Regional War

By Balqis Osman October 10, 2026
Lisbon, tram, portugal, means of transport, traffic, vacations, tourism, travel, city, urban, city vacation, europe, portugal
Lisbon, tram, portugal, means of transport, traffic, vacations, tourism, travel, city, urban, city vacation, europe, portugal, portugal, portugal, portugal, portugal. Photo: Leonhard_Niederwimmer/Pixabay

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Russia’s war with Ukraine is at a stalemate, but might expand into a wider regional war if the impasse continues.

Speaking in Lisbon, Portugal, on the final stop of a three-country tour through NATO allies Iceland, Greece, and Portugal, Rubio said that Washington believes the war ultimately requires a negotiated settlement and remains ready to facilitate diplomacy.

Escalation Risks and Diplomatic Efforts

Rubio’s remarks followed a Russian strike on two buses in the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk that killed at least 33 people on October 8, according to local authorities. Addressing the conflict and the security of NATO’s eastern flank, he called it “a very dangerous war” that has reached a stalemate.

He explained that stalemates typically end through negotiations or escalation. Negotiations demand difficult compromises from both sides, while escalation could involve Russia or Ukraine intensifying the conflict to alter the military balance. Rubio cautioned that escalation might include Russian sabotage in neighboring NATO countries, strikes, or other actions that could rapidly widen the conflict.

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Portugal’s foreign minister supported diplomatic efforts, stating that Russia’s invasion breaches international law and that any settlement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty.

NATO Defense and Cooperation

Rubio also addressed NATO defense spending, characterizing increased military outlays as an investment in defense rather than mere “spending more.” He argued that stronger individual NATO members would enhance the alliance’s overall strength and deterrence capabilities.

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He declined to comment on a Portuguese investigation into potential violations of international law at Portugal’s Lajes air base, stating it was a matter for Portuguese authorities.

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